MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Middle Tennessee business leaders remained cautiously optimistic in the second quarter of 2026, even as confidence among chief executives nationally moved into negative territory. 

The Middle Tennessee Business Confidence Index, based on the quarterly Middle Tennessee CEO Panel, registered 57.2 in the second quarter. The index dropped 2.9 points from 60.1 in the first quarter but remained above the neutral threshold of 50. The Q2 result is based on 44 unique panel responses. 

The index is produced by Middle Tennessee State University’s Business and Economic Research Center in partnership with the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce. The regional index uses weighted response scoring on a 0–100 scale; readings above 50 indicate net-positive sentiment, and 50 is neutral. Infrastructure, housing costs, and zoning/permitting are reported separately. 

Meanwhile, the national Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence fell from 59 in the first quarter to 47, putting Middle Tennessee’s reading just over 10 points above the national benchmark. Because the surveys use different questions and samples, the national measure is presented as a contextual benchmark. 

Current operating conditions remained stronger than the outlook for the future. The Current Conditions Index was 65.6, compared with 58.1 for Future Expectations. Sales expectations were the strongest core component at 69.3, followed by current business conditions at 68.8 and profitability expectations at 64.8. Tax and regulatory policy were the weakest component at 42, while confidence in the U.S. economy remained below neutral at 47.2. 

“Middle Tennessee business leaders are more cautious than they were in the first quarter, but the index continues to signal net-positive sentiment,” said Murat Arik, director of MTSU’s Business and Economic Research Center. “The contrast with the national decline is notable, while the regional responses also point to growing pressure from housing costs, permitting, and policy uncertainty.” 

Housing affordability was the most pronounced local concern. The Housing Cost Concern Index fell to 38.4, and 55.8% of valid respondents reported being very or extremely concerned that local housing costs were affecting their workforce. The zoning and permitting diagnostic declined to 55.8, with 46.5% reporting some or significant operational effect. The infrastructure diagnostic was comparatively stable at 56.4. 

Open-ended responses most often highlighted customer demand and competition, economic and political uncertainty, housing and workforce pressures, rising operating costs, interest rates, and zoning or permitting constraints. The most frequently requested policy responses involved tax or property-assessment relief, housing affordability, and permitting or regulatory reform. 

For more information about the Middle Tennessee Business Confidence Index, visit https://MTBCI.org.  

— Jimmy Hart ([email protected])