MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Heading into spring, Tennessee business leaders have a much more positive outlook about their industries, a sentiment trend that “has flipped” in the past year, according to results from the latest Tennessee Business Barometer by MTSU’s Jones College of Business.

The latest statewide index, which measures business leaders’ perceptions of the current and future economy, produced a score of 431 for winter 2024, the highest since spring 2021 and almost 100 points higher than the fall barometer results . The inaugural survey in July 2015 registered an index of 325.

Conducted in partnership with the Tennessee Chamber of Commerce & Industry, the Tennessee Business Barometer is an online opinion survey that tracks an overall index and four sub-indices: 1.) current outlook, 2.) future outlook, 3.) business/firm performance and 4.) employment outlook. 

Index scores are calculated from the percentages of positive and negative responses to a series of questions about perceptions of the economy.

“One year ago, Tennessee business leaders had become significantly concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the economy and business environment,” noted Michael Peasley, assistant professor of marketing and director of the university’s Office of Consumer Research, which oversees the index. “However, in the past 12 months, that trend has flipped. … Tennessee business leaders are looking forward to future growth.”

Businesses better able to adapt

Peasley notes that after positive sentiment dipped in 2020 due to the economic effects of COVID-19, it rebounded in 2021 as economic activity resumed. In 2022, Tennessee business leaders had become more pessimistic again and positive sentiment tapered off due to surging inflation and rising interest rates. 

“Last year, in 2023, positive sentiment made steady gains as businesses were able to better adapt to increased costs and navigate several other business challenges,” Peasley noted. “Most recently, in 2024, positive sentiment increased from 37% to 40%, and negative sentiment decreased from 17% to 15%.”

Though business leaders still have concerns surrounding key economic indicators such as inflation, staffing and recession, those concerns are lessening, and business leaders are more optimistic than worried for the first time in nearly three years.

Presidential preferences

The survey also gauged the preferred candidate of business leaders for this year’s presidential election, with Republican nominee Donald Trump the most preferred (46%), followed by Democratic President Joe Biden (35%), now former GOP candidate Nikki Haley (17%) and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (2%).

Find the full Tennessee Business Barometer survey report and previous reports at https://bit.ly/2GZvO7U.

For more information about the MTSU Office of Consumer Research, visit www.mtsu.edu/consumer. For more information about the Tennessee Chamber of Commerce & Industry, visit www.tnchamber.org.

— Jimmy Hart (Jimmy.Hart@mtsu.edu)