Tennesseans favor some, but not all, of several proposed abortion rules pending in the state Legislature, the latest MTSU Poll finds.

On two other issues, meanwhile, the Jan. 25-27 poll of 600 randomly selected Tennessee adults found majority opposition to permitting same-sex marriage and to increasing Tennessee’s tax on gasoline.

Ken Blake, director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University, said attitudes toward abortion regulation in Tennessee appear nuanced and strongly tied to religious identity. The poll’s margin of error is 4 percentage points.

“Across every form of abortion regulation we asked about in the poll, the proportion in favor of it came in more than 10 percentage points higher among evangelical Christians than among non-evangelicals,” Blake said.

“But both groups have reservations about the same things. For example, evangelicals and non-evangelicals alike are less likely to favor describing an ultrasound image to a woman who has refused to look at it than to favor requiring her doctor to talk to her about abortion risks, benefits and alternatives.”

The poll found that, among all Tennesseans:

• 57 percent favor requiring a woman’s doctor to discuss abortion risks, benefits and alternatives with her before she undergoes an abortion, 27 percent oppose, and 16 percent don’t know or refused.
• 48 percent favor requiring a woman to undergo an ultrasound one to three days before obtaining an abortion, 36 percent oppose, and 16 percent don’t know or refused.
• 52 percent favor requiring that a woman be offered an opportunity to view the image of an ultrasound she is undergoing prior to an abortion, 31 percent oppose, and 17 percent don’t know or declined to answer.
• 35 percent favor requiring that the image of an ultrasound a woman is undergoing prior to an abortion be described aloud if the woman declines to look at it, 48 percent oppose, and 17 percent don’t know or refused.
• 42 percent favor requiring that audio of any heartbeat detected during a pre-abortion ultrasound be played aloud for the woman to hear, 43 percent oppose, and 15 percent don’t know or declined to answer.
• 22 percent think abortion should be “legal in all circumstances,” 49 percent think it should be legal “under certain circumstances,” and 22 percent say it should be “illegal in all circumstances.” The rest don’t know or didn’t answer.

Click the image to see an interactive graphic of the results.

Click the image to view an interactive chart of the results.

“The largest difference between evangelicals and non-evangelicals was over requiring that audio of any heartbeat detected during a pre-abortion ultrasound be played aloud,” Blake said. “More than twice as many evangelicals (54 percent) expressed support for that measure compared to non-evangelicals (24 percent).”

Dr. Ken Blake

The smallest gap between evangelicals and non-evangelicals appeared on the question of whether to require that doctors describe abortion risks, benefits and alternatives to women who are seeking an abortion. Sixty-two percent of evangelicals favored such a rule, as did 51 percent of non-evangelicals.

Attitudinal differences between men and women on abortion regulation, by contrast, were all non-significant, Blake said.

“Men in our sample tended to be more in favor of abortion regulation than the women in our sample, but the percentage point differences were all in the single digits and not large enough to suggest a similar difference between men and women in all of Tennessee,” he said.

Majority against same-sex marriage, but opposition softening

Meanwhile, 55 percent of state residents oppose “allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally,” still a majority but a drop from the 64 percent opposition observed in the spring 2014 MTSU Poll. Thirty-two percent favor allowing such couples to marry, and the rest aren’t sure or declined to answer.

Here, too, evangelical identity makes the biggest difference. Among evangelicals, 70 percent oppose and 19 percent favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. Among non-evangelicals, only 29 percent oppose allowing same-sex marriages, and 55 percent favor allowing them.

Dr. Jason Reineke

Jason Reineke, associate director of the MTSU Poll, said the decline in opposition to same-sex marriage is notable.

“It’s too soon to say whether the softening opposition to same-sex marriage that polls show happening around the country is showing up in Tennessee, but it’s a number that will be interesting to watch after this summer, when the U.S. Supreme Court is likely to release its ruling on same-sex marriage,” Reineke said.

Majority oppose raising gas tax

A 53 percent majority of Tennesseans oppose raising the state’s gas tax to fund better roads and bridges. Twenty-six percent support raising the tax, and a considerable 21 percent are undecided.

Support is highest among well-informed political moderates and liberals, lower among well-informed conservatives, and lowest among the least informed, regardless of political orientation.

For more information, go to www.mtsupoll.org.

POLL: State weighs in on leaders, presidential hopefuls, Tenn. Promise

Feb. 5, 2015

In general, Tennesseans rate their state government leaders better than those in the federal government, according to the latest statewide MTSU Poll.

Gov. Bill Haslam

“It is a very interesting time to be a political observer in the state of Tennessee,” said Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. “State and national issues are currently overlapping in fascinating ways.”

The poll randomly surveyed 600 adult residents statewide Jan. 25-27 and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Haslam riding high

Gov. Bill Haslam’s approval rating has rebounded noticeably to 64 percent compared to a year ago (47 percent in the spring 2014 poll), with only 18 percent of Tennesseans disapproving and the remaining 19 percent saying they don’t know or refuse to answer the question.

Across demographics and political affiliation, pluralities or majorities approve of the job the governor is doing.

Gov. Bill Haslam has seen a noticeable rise in his job approval since last year.

Legislature holding its own

Meanwhile, a 49 percent plurality of Tennesseans approve of the job the Tennessee General Assembly is doing, while only 25 percent disapprove and 26 percent say that they don’t know or refuse to answer.

Approval has a partisan tilt, however, with 67 percent of self-identified Republicans saying they approve and only 9 percent disapproving. That compares to a 42-percent plurality of Democrats disapproving while 35 percent approve.

Among independents, 49 percent approve, 29 percent disapprove.

Still no fans of Obama

President Barack Obama

Turning to the federal government, only 37 percent of Tennesseans approve of President Barack Obama’s performance, while 52 percent disapprove and the rest say they don’t know or refuse to answer.

These figures are comparable to Obama’s approval numbers in the state since spring of 2011, Reineke noted.

Predictably, Tennessee Democrats tend to strongly approve of Obama (80 percent) and Republicans tend to disapprove even more strongly (87 percent). Independents also tend to disapprove (57 percent).

Congress even worse overall

The U.S. Congress, however, fares worse with a 70 percent disapproval. Only 15 percent of Tennesseans approve of how Congress is handling its job and the rest don’t know or refuse to answer. Furthermore, majorities disapprove across demographic and political differences.

U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander

U.S. Sen. Bob Corker

Tennesseans approve of their own U.S. senators markedly more than of Congress as a whole, though.

• Alexander: A 47 percent plurality approve of the job Lamar Alexander is doing, while 32 percent disapprove and 21 percent say they don’t know or refuse to answer.
• Corker: A similar 44 percent plurality approve of the job Bob Corker is doing while 27 percent disapprove and 29 percent say they don’t know or refuse to answer.

Find previous MTSU Poll results at www.mtsupoll.org.

Click the image to view an interactive graphic of the results.

POLL: Tennesseans up to speed on most 2016 presidential contenders

Feb. 5, 2015

While many potential 2016 candidates for president are well known to Tennesseans, some are surprisingly less so, according to the latest statewide MTSU Poll.

“At this point, when potential candidates are still deciding whether to run and there has been little active campaigning or staking out of positions, we decided that name recognition is the best way to assess the candidates’ standing,” said Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University.

“But considering that U.S. Sen. Bob Corker from Tennessee hasn’t ruled out a run for the White House, we did want to ask Tennesseans whether they thought he should go for it.”

Click to visit the MTSU Poll website.

Tennesseans seem less than keen on potential presidential aspirations for Corker, though, despite his rising political profile in recent years thanks to bipartisan congressional efforts on fiscal issues and other matters.

Only 11 percent of poll respondents said the Chattanooga Republican should run, while 41 percent said he should not run for president. A 46 percent plurality said they were unsure whether he should run or not, and the rest refused to answer the question.

The poll randomly surveyed 600 adult residents statewide Jan. 25-27 and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Meanwhile, Tennesseans are familiar with some of the likely contenders for president in 2016, but not others.

Democrats: On the Democratic party side, wide majorities said that they had heard of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (98 percent) and Vice President Joe Biden (93 percent); but most said they had not heard of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who may run as a Democrat (68 percent), or former U.S. Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia (70 percent).

Republicans: Frontrunners in terms of name recognition among the potential Republican candidates include former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (89 percent), former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (83 percent), and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (78 percent).

A second tier of recognized, possible Republican candidates is made up of U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky (69 percent); former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (67 percent); former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, winner of Tennessee’s 2012 Republican primary (59 percent); U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (57 percent); and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida (53 percent).

Most Tennesseans have not heard of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (58 percent) or Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (62 percent).

Of all the Republicans mentioned, name recognition was highest for 2012 Republican nominee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (96 percent), who was rumored to be considering a third run for the oval office while the poll was in the field but has since formally bowed out of the race for his party’s nomination.

Find previous MTSU Poll results at www.mtsupoll.org.

Strong support for ‘Tennessee Promise’ higher ed initiative

Feb. 5, 2015

The “Tennessee Promise” community college initiative enjoys strong support from a large majority of Tennesseans, according to the latest statewide MTSU Poll.

Gov. Bill Haslam’s plan, which makes two-year community colleges and technical schools free for recent high school graduates, has been cited as inspiration for a similar proposal at the federal level. Tennessee’s program launches with the high school Class of 2015.

Click the image for more information about Tennessee Promise.

The poll found that 79 percent of Tennesseans approve of the program. Only 12 percent oppose it, 8 percent aren’t sure, and the rest gave no answer.

“While the overall support is very high, a deeper look inside the numbers shows less enthusiasm among Republicans,” said Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University.

Since President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address a few weeks ago, proposals to provide free community college have been front and center in the national conversation regarding higher education.

Haslam’s program, which is one plan that Obama says he used as a basis for his proposal, enjoys overwhelming support in the state. But that support is significantly stronger among Democrats and independents than among the governor’s fellow Republicans.

Ninety percent of Democrats favor the program, as do 82 percent of independents. But a significantly lower 70 percent of Republicans express support.

Find previous MTSU Poll results at www.mtsupoll.org.

POLL: One in 5 Tennesseans grade schools’ quality ‘D’ or ‘F’

Feb. 3, 2015

Nearly a fifth of Tennesseans would give state and local public schools a “D” or “F” for quality, and the figure approaches a third in the state’s two most populous counties, Shelby and Davidson, the latest MTSU Poll shows.

Dr. Jason Reineke

Dr. Ken Blake

“Davidson and Shelby counties stand out in a couple of ways,” said Ken Blake, Ph.D., director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. “People in those two counties not only grade Tennessee’s public schools lower, but they also grade their local public schools about as low as they grade schools across the state. Everywhere else in Tennessee, people tend to grade their local public schools a bit higher than schools statewide.”

The poll randomly surveyed 600 adult residents statewide Jan. 25-27. The survey’s margin of error is 4 percentage points.

Asked to give Tennessee an A, B, C, D or F on the quality of the public schools in the state, 35 percent of state residents chose an A or B, 32 percent, a C, and 18 percent, a D or F. In Shelby and Davidson counties, 16 percent chose an A or B; 39%, a C; and 30 percent, a D or F.

When the poll asked respondents to grade their local communities on school quality using the same scale, 47 percent of all Tennesseans chose an A or B; 22 percent, a C, and 19 percent, a D or F. In Shelby and Davidson, 28 percent chose an A or B; 27 percent, a C; and 34 percent a D or F. Complete breakdowns are below.

Statewide school quality

Local community school quality

Despite the mixed ratings on school quality, a solid 65 percent majority of Tennesseans said they had “trust and confidence in the men and women who are teaching children in the public schools.” Twenty percent said they did not, and 15 percent were unsure or gave no answer.

But Jason Reineke, Ph.D., associate director of the poll, noted that faith in teachers appears linked to perceived quality of public schools.

Majorities of those who give A, B and C grades for state and local school quality say they have trust and confidence in teachers, Reineke said. But among those who give D and F grades for state and local school quality, trust and confidence in teachers slips to about 40 percent yes, 40 percent no, and the rest undecided.

“The more people in Tennessee think state and local public schools have a serious problem, the more they think state and local public school teachers are part of the problem,” Reineke said. “But the majority view statewide seems to be that while schools may have some quality issues, teachers can be trusted to do a good job.”

Click here for an interactive graphic of the results.

Find previous MTSU Poll results at www.mtsupoll.org.

POLL: Most Tennesseans haven’t heard about ‘Insure Tennessee’ plan

Jan. 31, 2015

Two-thirds of Tennesseans haven’t heard much about Gov. Bill Haslam’s “Insure Tennessee” health care proposal, but among the third who have, support substantially outweighs opposition, according to the latest MTSU Poll.

Gov. Bill Haslam

The poll randomly surveyed 600 adult residents statewide a week before a special legislative session kicks off Monday to consider the measure. The survey’s margin of error is 4 percentage points.

“Gov. Haslam has gotten a notable head start in promoting the measure among Tennesseans,” said Ken Blake, director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. “But his opponents have a lot of maneuvering room left among the two in three Tennesseans who are still largely unaware of the measure.”

Conducted Jan. 25-27, the poll first asked Tennesseans how much they had heard about “a proposal from Gov. Bill Haslam called ‘Insure Tennessee,’ which is designed to provide health insurance for Tennesseans who earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but not enough to afford coverage on their own.” A follow-up question asked how they felt “right now about the governor’s ‘Insure Tennessee’ proposal.”

According to the results:

• Thirty-three percent of Tennesseans have read or heard “a lot” (10 percent) or “some” (23 percent) about “Insure Tennessee,” while 66 percent have heard either “a little” (31 percent) or “nothing at all” (36 percent).
• Among the 33 percent who have at least some information, 49 percent favor the proposal, 11 percent oppose it, and 40 percent are unsure or haven’t made up their minds.
• Meanwhile, among the 66 percent who have heard little or nothing, 69 percent don’t know how they feel about it, while 26 percent expressed support, and 5 percent, opposition.
• Overall, regardless of how much they have read or heard about the measure, 34 percent favor Insure Tennessee, 7 percent oppose it, and 59 percent remain uncertain.

Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll, emphasized the importance of accounting for how much Tennesseans know about the governor’s proposal when estimating their attitudes toward it.

“For obvious reasons, we try to avoid estimating public opinion about an issue before most of the public has become aware of it,” Reineke said. “But when the issue is the focus of a weeklong special legislative session, a public affairs poll like ours can’t simply ignore it. So we measured awareness first, then did our best to estimate support within high- and low-awareness groups.”

Dr. Jason Reineke

Dr. Ken Blake

Reineke cautioned that people who knew little about Insure Tennessee before being polled probably answered based on whatever information they absorbed from the poll question itself. “Their opinions might change easily as they encounter additional information about the measure, including what is being said by the measure’s supporters and opponents.”

By contrast, people who had already heard or read something before being polled were more likely to express a previously developed opinion, Reineke said. ”Opinions expressed by these individuals probably will be relatively more stable over time, although any opinion can change at any time in response to new developments or information.”

Some demographic patterns are evident. For example, among Tennesseans who have heard a lot or some about Insure Tennessee, support is higher among those with at least some college education. Among those who have heard little or nothing, support is greater among minorities than among whites.

There is some evidence of higher support overall among Democrats and independents than among Republicans, but the pattern disappears after Tennesseans are divided according to how much they have heard about the proposal.

Find more information and previous MTSU Poll results at www.mtsupoll.org.

Click the image to go to an interactive version of the graphic.